Wednesday, 19 November 2008

Update 19th November 2008

I am privileged to have friends and acquaintances who work at a most senior level, in industry and banking, in Europe. I have just returned from a social visit and I am sharing the essence of what was said.

Many banks are expected to disappear. There will not necessarily be failures resulting in loss of depositors' funds (although that was considered very possible) but nobody thought that most banks would survive this crisis.

Currencies are in 'red for volatile' conditions. Most are bullish GBP and neutral EUR (both vs the USD). Gold is seen as rising or trading sideways around the mid-700s. 650 is considered to be a absolute floor for gold.

Everyone regarded last week's G-20 'summit' as a complete waste of time (at best) or a fraud. Talking to people who have some insight, it seems that USA might have some alternative agenda that they are not prepared to announce just yet...but that's speculation.

The bourses are tipped to continue to plunge. This is threatening banks. The situation remains dire and getting worse.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

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