The bourses continue to plunge, increasing the risk of bank failures and deficiencies in pension funds.
Company earnings and forecasts continue to plunge with gloomy CEO outlooks in most cases. It is plunging earnings and insolvent balance sheets that are the real problem today. People have stopped buying things and now businesses will have to stop making things (or at least, not as many things). That's a 'heads-up' to GM and Ford.
MasterCard say that gasoline consumption in the USA is now down 4% (presumably adjusted seasonally, but my report does not say). Official figures are due out later today. 4% is a huge fall. Nearly one journey in twenty has not taken place.
The US dollar is far too strong for the USA to stand. At present levels the US cannot be competitive in many export markets and we can be sure that there is huge political pressure within the US to weaken the USD. Of course, a weakening USD would also reduce the value of debt, in real terms, so has two benefits. What is not clear right now is how much control the US has over its exchange rate.
The outcome of tomorrow's Washington summit will be very interesting. I won't go as far as to suggest that you short the dollar but it might be wise to close any long positions before Friday.
Thursday, 13 November 2008
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