Wednesday, 17 December 2008

Oil falls after a 9% OPEC cut - go figure!

You don't have to 'go' very far to 'figure' why oil is down despite an OPEC cut of 9%.

A) The recession is looking more like the most severe depression the world has ever seen
B) Central governments are in a flat spin, trying to fight the 'crisis' -- the measures being taken are disproportionate to the official line. People realise that something very nasty is about to happen. This will be oil-negative.
C) The oil producers need to increase their incomes -- they have their own domestic issues. Regardless of any OPEC agreements, the producers will pump whatever they need to pump.

The Fed cut created a short lived rally, as I forecast. Daily, the news on our televisions becomes more dire. Something very serious is about to happen -- I have felt this for some weeks and now the pressure is building to a panic level. I shall be very surprised if we don't have some major news within weeks and almost certainly before the end of January.

Very gold positive. Gold has gone through the resistance and the dramatic pullback earlier this year has become a memory. Gold and the Swiss Franc are set to gain.

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